Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.280862 0.317385 0.356991 0.403153 0.455509 0.513083 0.581247
2025-10-26 0.228689 0.277612 0.334668 0.406215 0.493680 0.597311 0.729697
2025-11-02 0.180672 0.233672 0.299601 0.387846 0.503210 0.649374 0.849379
2025-11-09 0.143182 0.196144 0.266004 0.365250 0.503227 0.689167 0.960301
2025-11-16 0.118765 0.171546 0.245038 0.355368 0.517786 0.749638 1.108486
2025-11-23 0.099455 0.150826 0.226011 0.344797 0.529197 0.806927 1.261429
2025-11-30 0.088268 0.140127 0.219668 0.351541 0.566811 0.907974 1.496768
2025-12-07 0.074893 0.123956 0.202500 0.338596 0.571260 0.957703 1.658253
2025-12-14 0.065255 0.112315 0.190744 0.332421 0.585435 1.024795 1.859424
2025-12-21 0.057261 0.102234 0.180065 0.326272 0.598348 1.091088 2.069580
2025-12-28 0.052657 0.097383 0.177646 0.334226 0.637437 1.209409 2.395329
2026-01-04 0.047358 0.090501 0.170585 0.332429 0.657737 1.295326 2.672127
2026-01-11 0.043088 0.085138 0.165931 0.335213 0.688733 1.409407 3.032207
2026-01-18 0.039949 0.081547 0.164212 0.343649 0.732698 1.557073 3.491715
2026-01-25 0.035195 0.074034 0.153649 0.332216 0.733081 1.613576 3.761076
2026-02-01 0.030626 0.066276 0.141535 0.315648 0.719642 1.637890 3.961352
2026-02-08 0.027494 0.061180 0.134383 0.309003 0.727630 1.711943 4.295256
2026-02-15 0.024657 0.056353 0.127167 0.301124 0.731477 1.776959 4.619406
2026-02-22 0.023182 0.054427 0.126219 0.307903 0.771933 1.937292 5.221737
2026-03-01 0.020731 0.049880 0.118583 0.297236 0.767007 1.983193 5.525950
2026-03-08 0.018904 0.046595 0.113519 0.292269 0.776025 2.066690 5.951682
2026-03-15 0.017270 0.043568 0.108688 0.287183 0.783922 2.148531 6.389259
2026-03-22 0.016437 0.042458 0.108501 0.294369 0.826570 2.332946 7.169823